Thread: How low will it go? 2016 edition:

El nino is makin me carazy!

Probably the warmest December on record.
Now the rain and cool weather begin...

As always, stating a water temperature depends on when and where it is recorded.

Since there is no weather station at the pier, anglers are forced to rely on periodic testing by the pier staff which is written on the board outside the pierhouse.
But it may not be changed (updated) until the next observation (for days?).
Also you can call the pier (when it is open) and ask the staff if a recent water temp has been taken.
Today they said it was 64, taken at the end of the pier? (I assume)
The surf is calm but the water near the beach may still be a few degrees cooler.
And the reporters usually know nothing about the salinity or even clarity of the water and how that relates to fishing.

Another way is to try and interpolate the water temp from nearby automated reported stations which give a longer (and at times more dependable) record of the conditions, though this may not be as accurate as the 'onsite' observation but it can lend some insight of what to expect.

The nearest station out in the gulf (NOAA buoy 42012) is about 15 miles southeast of the pier in 85 feet deep water.
But often that location may not be indicative of the water temp at the pier because the water temp will be more 'stable' and warmer (during winter) in 85 feet deep water than in 27 feet deep water at the end of the pier and especially at the shoreline.


Making an estimation of the conditions at the pier based on a single station miles away even more problematic is the possible influence of outflow from nearby water bodies.
Little Lagoon Pass is just four and a half miles west of the GSPPier and Perdido Pass is six and a half miles to the east.
Both are relatively small and shallow water bodies which are influenced by air temperatures and lack of sunshine much easier than the hugely larger and deeper Gulf.

The ambient water temp at Perdido Pass has dropped about 12 degrees in the past 4 days!


This drop is due in part to the influx of fresh water from the heavy rains dumped last week into the Perdido Bay watershed (which is BTW much larger than that of Little Lagoon).
The amount of fresh water was so large that for several days it actually 'overran' the diurnal (daily) tidal variation of salinity typically observed during the incoming tide phase.
As a result the ambient salinity measured at Perdido Pass has been diluted to just a fraction of the 'normal' near 30.

The fresh water is much less dense than the saltier water which it tends to 'float' over until mixing occurs, and that can take a longer time during 'calm' weather periods (offshore winds and no waves), NEAP tides and high volumes of freshwater discharge.
Longshore currents can push water discharged from these outlets to the pier in just a few hours creating a drastic change in water temperature and salinity (and clarity) there as well.
Any time such a freshwater outflow makes its way to the pier (usually as a "tide line" six to eight hours after the tide begins to 'fall' out from Perdido Pass) the water conditions rapidly change there and the fishing is drastically affected for a while (usually at least the next tide change).

But the question remains: How low will it go?

At least it looks like the Nino may have peaked and started down (slowly).

ENSO Page | Watts Up With That?

This forecast looks promising (for an early end of winter weather)...
National Weather Service
Cooler this weekend, but a warmup all next week (into the upper 60s again)

I am not complaining about this chilly weekend, the high today where I grew up in the Poconos of northeast PA is forecasted to be 10 degrees (they already reached that and the temps will start to fall this afternoon!) with an overnight low of -8. Yes, that's a minus 8!

That said, I was on the NHK news site yesterday, the Japanese Weather Agency, which is pretty good on this El Nino thing, has also said that data indicates that it has peaked and is starting to fade. Good news for everyone except the snow pack & water managers in California.

a solid six degree jump in WTs at Perdido Pass this past week...

Error, sorry IGNORE THIS GRAPH, CORRECTION BELOW.

Can't figure out how to detach this one.

Whoops something screwy in those last temps. Back Later

The data in the graph below is smoothed by averaging the last 24 hrs so it will not match the 42012 reading exactly.

This is right