https://scontent-atl3-1.xx.fbcdn.net...e8&oe=5E13941A
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At this point especially, computer models stretching more than a week out are mere mathematical conjecture.
It certainly bears watching, but the NHC is saying the variables of even their 5 day forecast are "low confidence" especially for the intensity forecast... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../250248.shtml?
This shows the spread of the CMC models...
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stor...eps_latest.png
Anyway, the position and width of 'the cone' says a lot about how many prayers will be said in this hemisphere over the coming 2 weeks...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graph...e_and_wind.png
It's because some of the models line up for the storm to pass across south Florida and end up in the Gulf that this is one to watch. To be sure, "end up in the Gulf" doesn't mean, necessarily, hurricane/tropical storm conditions for Gulf Shores.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pier#r
I should have given credit for the graphics to Mike's Weather Page, which creates usable, if mere, models for conjecture.
https://spaghettimodels.com/
I've been following the GFS because of the two days of snapper fishing next week and it has been showing a front of varying strength moving across us late in the week. That front is probably the key to whether or not Dorian (IF it even strengthens to hurricane) comes towards us. It can push Dorian to the North or squeeze Dorian south into Mexico, but if the front dissipates then Dorain can come our way.
"Dorian" is still sending a LOT of 'mixed signals' about its strength and position giving forecasters fits.
As of now, a week away this is the NWS best guesstimate...
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9nhwbg_conus.gif
A weak TS (1009 mb low) in the NE gulf is practically a non-event for us.
Let's hope so!
I will be following this thread as we are set to arrive in GS on 9/7. :)
Here's the latest from Mike's Weather Page about Dorian:
["Dorian in my nutshell. Looking at Tropical Storm conditions in the Caribbean the next couple days. Most all models show main development chances after the DR/PR crossover. New center reformed north today playing trickery on models. Now PR might take the brunt Wed. How it survives over PR and DR is the key. If a core still exists definite shot to intensify in the Atlantic. Yes could completely die... but almost no models show this chance. Dorian gets pulled more northward and through parts of the Bahamas Fri/Sat with a turn westward. Models fanning out from SFL to even north of Florida now. More time over the hot Gulf and favorable conditions could ramp this up. This is NOT in the official NHC forecast as of now. But my gut says yes. Latest ensembles trending maybe a turn northward close to impact. This will allow more strengthening over the Gulf stream and put GA/SC/NC in play. This has my attention. If it hits the peninsula of Florida could escape into the Gulf. Saturday looks like the best day for Florida. Saturday night into Sunday things go downhill. If does trend north most of the weather is to the north and east so most of the peninsula would be dry with a later landfall into Sun/Mon even up north. Lots to watch. But making sense. Nothing to worry about in the long-term right now. Just nothing solid yet. Just be prepared for any of these scenarios. Could get real hectic over the weekend if Dorian is forecast to strengthen. Will go live at 8:18pm to chit-chat. www.spaghettimodels.com / Drunk Donkey gear at teespring.com/stores/mikes-weather-page "]
looking more and more like a north Florida/Georgia landfalling hurricane...
https://scontent-dfw5-2.xx.fbcdn.net...65&oe=5E10008B
Impact here will likely be a drier northeasterly wind building over the weekend...
https://marine.weather.gov/MapClick....0#.XWZzXuhKjcv
However, as noted in the NHC latest discussion on "Dorian...Quote:
TodayNorthwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
TonightNorthwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
ThursdayNortheast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Thursday NightNorthwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming northeast 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
FridayNortheast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds.
Friday NightEast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
SaturdayEast winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Chance of thunderstorms and slight chance of showers.
Saturday NightEast winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
SundayEast winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday Night
Northeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/280848.shtml
Quote:
However, there has been considerable run-to-run variability among the models so confidence in the long term track remains low. In addition, users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast points as the average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.
Friday into Saturday AM looks like awesome fishing days to me. I would be on the pier if I could, just in case something glorious blows in. But....I can't. Sure hope it isn't much of a tempest anywhere....
Dorian has taken a jog to the right, sparing Puerto Rico the worst of it and hitting the British Virgin Isles (Charlotte Amalie) with the NE quadrant, but the models (UKMET, HWRF and Ensemble) are moving towards it crossing Florida and coming into the Gulf. Base GFS still has it staying northwesterly after landfall and not getting to the Gulf.
I can do without this one.
a LOT of folkses in south Florida might be taking a 'trip' over the Labor Day weekend.
"Dorian" is now predicted to become a major hurricane prior to landfaling there...
I don't think we can quit watching this one yet. It could still shake the coconuts out of our tree.
Now projected a 3 on the channel I watch
The GFS Ensemble has been painting a bullseye on us for a few days now. I'm starting to feel a bit uneasy.
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2019/hurricane-dorian?map=ensemble
Apparently my hope for not much of tempest was in vain.
The models still have a LOT of divergence after 3 days ahead.Quote:
Originally Posted by frednic
But the 'latest' consensus seems to indicate an abrupt turn the north/northeast ("recurve") at some point over Florida/NE GoM before it reaches us... https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/2019...2019082900.gif
Yeah, some of the latest models show an initial turn into S. FL and then an abrupt turn NORTH along the coast toward GA and SC/NC. If those models hold, then the latest prediction would mirror something close to what Hurricane Matthew did in 2016.
Here's the track for Hurricane Matthew in 2016:
https://boygeniusreport.files.wordpr...l_sm.gif?w=782