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or 'False Spring' ?
Short-lived cold snaps, 70 degree highs predicted thru Jan 25th, water temp in the low 60s just offshore, etc...
How is this manifesting in the outlook for the rest of the winter (next 9 weeks til March 21)?
Please pick one and post why (we don't have polls :-(
Winter will be 'warmer than average'
Winter will be 'average'
Winter will be 'cooler than average'
Mguess is warmer than averagel Like, like, like!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...ge/fxus05.html
According to the weather folks, we've got a La Nina pattern developing, so the odds favor warmer weather and drier weather across the south for the next 90 days. Which means, basically, beans. But it has been warmer and my guess is it will be drier. Another good year to have hay for sale.
Maybe.
Im going with Winter will be warmer, basically because last year Winter was so freakin cold. The weather patterns seem to swing drastically from year to year the past four or five years. I do not think it will be an overly cold winter, at all.
warmer than average...my reasoning, global warming ::) :poke1:
I will agree with warmer.
Think I'm going to get the tiller out early this year. Although, I happen to recall last time we had a winter start out this way, a blizzard nailed the southeast in mid april... I was caught in 12 feet of snow at someone's apartment in Knoxville, TN, for two weeks--was back in the mid 1990s.
the snow in ala was in 93, in march, if it was the same blizzard :angry:
It does seem that a bitter winter has less snow, and a warmer season can suddenly dump a batch of snow but that's about as scientific as my stinking but lucky fishing socks.
Dunno - but here's the averages:
Gulf Coast Average Daily Temperatures
Month Daily Max. Daily Min. Monthly Avg. Water
January 57.5 43.5 50.5 55
February 60.4 46.3 53.4 57
March 66.7 54.3 60.5 64
April 74.4 62.7 68.5 69
May 81.3 69.7 75.5 76
June 86.5 75.3 81.1 82
July 89.0 76.6 82.8 84
August 88.6 76.9 82.8 85
September 85.4 73.8 78.6 81
October 77.5 64.8 71.2 74
November 69.1 55.8 62.5 65
December 61.7 48.2 55.0 57
Year 74.9 62.3 68.6 70.75
Temperatures compiled from data furnished by the Southeast Agricultural Weather Service Center. Water temperatures furnished by the Dauphin Island Sea Lab.
[quote author=eddy g link=topic=503.msg4597#msg4597 date=1327004715]
the snow in ala was in 93, in march, if it was the same blizzard :angry:
[/quote]
Yeah, I am sure it was the same blizzard. I probably remember April because it was April before I was able to leave those people's house. Haha
12 ft of snow, my wife is too smart for that >:(
Hmmm yeah Slim, temperature recording locations are going to be relative but the baselines (averages) would be different most of the time.
Case in point, don't try to directly compare DI water temps to another location like say Perdido Pass (or the pier).
There is often a 5 degree (or more) difference in the readings. :o
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v3...erdidoPass.jpg
That NOAA CPC (Climate Prediction Center) that Rich posted is some heavy reading, but it 'hits the bullseye' in getting a feel for the general trends expected.
Basically, we are expected to have a drier than average winter with slighter higher than average temps. Then the spring could be close to average.
We'll see huh?
I have to skip the heavy parts and find something understandable like this:
THERE ARE ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL
MEAN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS FROM THE SOUTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. TO
THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM DELAWARE AND MARYLAND TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS OUTLOOK
IS BASED LARGELY ON LA NINA COMPOSITES.....
Reads just like the sound on the weather radio.....
Hovering in the 60s in January -- no wonder there are still spanish around.
http://i1136.photobucket.com/albums/...sjan2011-1.jpg
[quote author=eddy g link=topic=503.msg4614#msg4614 date=1327020032]
12 ft of snow, my wife is too smart for that >:(
[/quote]
It wasnt 12 foot everywhere, but these apartments were at the base of a very sloped and steep hill. A huge pile accumulated at the base in front of the apartment doors. It came over the railing, and we were on the second floor snowed in. I would say the average in most places was around 4 feet.
It was fun once it started melting though. We acted like kids sliding down the hill in random flat objects--at least until the city came and started salting the roads. Fun times.
I went back 12yrs of rutger sea surface temps and the water temps in 2009,2010,and 2011 where the coldest of the past decade.The water temps for this Jan.have been in line with the other years in the record,where they were in the low to mid 60s.The reason that we are catching some of the things we are;is the pier is longer now.Water temp is back to average;in the 09,10,and 11,the water was 5-10 degrees colder than we might exspect.Weather is above ave.pines are raining pollen,some other trees are putting on flowers,even in Atlanta.Don't put away the winter gear yet;to average out the winter temps we are now enjoying,there will be deep drop in temps in Feb,or March will be colder than average.If I was growning peachs ,or strawberrys I would be planning to protect the early fruit sets.Years ago when Baldwin Co. was tarter county,the farmers hated the weather and temps we have this year,because they knew that there was a very good chance that the taters were going to get killed back,and they would have to replant.
Boy VG you are good, my wife would never believe me If I stayed away that long at someone's else house, she would have been looking for me. :)
[quote author=pescador link=topic=503.msg4632#msg4632 date=1327075062]
I went back 12yrs of rutger sea surface temps and the water temps in 2009,2010,and 2011 where the coldest of the past decade.The water temps for this Jan.have been in line with the other years in the record,where they were in the low to mid 60s.The reason that we are catching some of the things we are;is the pier is longer now.Water temp is back to average;in the 09,10,and 11,the water was 5-10 degrees colder than we might exspect.Weather is above ave.pines are raining pollen,some other trees are putting on flowers,even in Atlanta.Don't put away the winter gear yet;to average out the winter temps we are now enjoying,there will be deep drop in temps in Feb,or March will be colder than average.If I was growning peachs ,or strawberrys I would be planning to protect the early fruit sets.Years ago when Baldwin Co. was tarter county,the farmers hated the weather and temps we have this year,because they knew that there was a very good chance that the taters were going to get killed back,and they would have to replant.
[/quote]
Very interesting analysis of those old reports. Thanks.
I've been seeing Mahi, haven't seen any since mid-summer if that means anything. Maybe they are the groundhogs of the water!
How close in-shore? I see the rare picture of ones caught from pier [which would be awesome :yippee: ], but mostly curious about water temps.
[quote author=eddy g link=topic=503.msg4644#msg4644 date=1327098955]
Boy VG you are good, my wife would never believe me If I stayed away that long at someone's else house, she would have been looking for me. :)
[/quote]
Ah, haha, well, I was "between wives" at the time. I was free to roam without question. :headbang:
Third time's the charm, right?
If that were to happen now, though.... Oh Lord have mercy on my soul. :slap:
[quote author=midwestexile link=topic=503.msg4648#msg4648 date=1327101331]
[quote author=pescador link=topic=503.msg4632#msg4632 date=1327075062]
I went back 12yrs of rutger sea surface temps and the water temps in 2009,2010,and 2011 where the coldest of the past decade.The water temps for this Jan.have been in line with the other years in the record,where they were in the low to mid 60s.The reason that we are catching some of the things we are;is the pier is longer now.Water temp is back to average;in the 09,10,and 11,the water was 5-10 degrees colder than we might exspect.Weather is above ave.pines are raining pollen,some other trees are putting on flowers,even in Atlanta.Don't put away the winter gear yet;to average out the winter temps we are now enjoying,there will be deep drop in temps in Feb,or March will be colder than average.If I was growning peachs ,or strawberrys I would be planning to protect the early fruit sets.Years ago when Baldwin Co. was tarter county,the farmers hated the weather and temps we have this year,because they knew that there was a very good chance that the taters were going to get killed back,and they would have to replant.
[/quote]
Very interesting analysis of those old reports. Thanks.
[/quote]
Pescador is an encyclopedia of information. :bow: Enjoyed meeting with you the other day. Thanks for the overview... great info.
[quote author=midwestexile link=topic=503.msg4657#msg4657 date=1327113165]
How close in-shore? I see the rare picture of ones caught from pier [which would be awesome :yippee: ], but mostly curious about water temps.
[/quote]
Not anywhere close but for the past few months it has been hard just seeing fish. Something has got them moving!!
[quote author=midwestexile link=topic=503.msg4657#msg4657 date=1327113165]
How close in-shore? I see the rare picture of ones caught from pier [which would be awesome :yippee: ], but mostly curious about water temps.
[/quote]
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Exile, PNG is talking about his Pier Away From Here.
http://www.gulfshorespierfishing.com...way-from-here/
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I’m guessing warmer than normal, based on it being 70+ degrees for the next couple day!
Nothing goes together better than:
January, Tee shirts. Shorts, Flip Flops and Gulf Shores!
Whoop! Whoop!
[/size]
Perhaps some ladies can break out their Polartec bikinis. :poke:
[size=12pt]
Is it just me or has anybody else noticed yellow pollen residue on the ground after the rain yesterday morning?
Early or normal?
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About 'normal' for late January.
It's mostly pine pollen.
On a related note it seems that every japanese magnolia in Mobile is blooming this week! :o
Noticed several redbud and pinkbud trees blooming too. :headbang:
The birds have been going 'bonkers' this week singing :P
The NWS forecast for Thursday Feb 2, 2012
[size=18pt]HAPPY GROUNDHOG DAY![/size]Quote:
Thursday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 72.
[img width=341 height=283]http://www.netglimse.com/images/events/groundhog_day/groundhog_day1.gif[/img]
:headbang:
VG you snow Dog
[quote author=eddy g link=topic=503.msg4925#msg4925 date=1327680525]
VG you snow Dog
[/quote]
LOL! I may be a cold-natured danish viking, but I am going to have to go with Fin on this one:
"Nothing goes together better than:
January, Tee shirts. Shorts, Flip Flops and Gulf Shores!
Whoop! Whoop!" by FinChaser.
Just call me spoiled by the equator!
I will take spring any time it wants. Hopefully sooner is better. I do work outside
No shadows this am along the northern gulf coast :headbang: :banana: :yippee: :yay:
http://www.ajc.com/news/groundhog-da...e-1327738.html
Happy Groundhog Day!
:fishing: 8)
Dam lyin varmit! :o :guns: :violent :poke1: :angry: :poke1:
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick...cstType=marine
But then back to 70 thru the end of next week! ???Quote:
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 27.
Wind chill values between 20 and 25. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 53. Wind chill values between 15 and 25 early.
Breezy, with a north wind between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 31.
Northeast wind between 5 and 15 mph
Got a chance of snow flurries up this way for Sat nite and Sunday. Another weather note: my yard( around here it is yard, not lawn) has been full of Robins this past week. They aren't called the harbinger of spring for nothing!
My wife and I talked about fishing today, and as we entered the van from leaving Cracker Barrel, a gust of freezing northern wind shot into our faces and chilled the spine!!!
Needless to say, there was an immediate change of heart and we decided to remain nice and cozy at home.
:(
This looks ominous.
The water temps (inshore) have plummeted so much, so quickly (more than 10 degrees in 60 hours) it could certainly cause fish kills. ???
Water temp @ Perdido Pass station
[img width=596 height=476]http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v335/pierpounder/Misc/weather/WaterTemp/2012-FebWaterTempDrop-PerdidoPass.jpg[/img]
It's astounding to see the air temp just above freezing at the 12 mile buoy in the gulf
while the water temp is holding in the middle 60s (over 30 degrees difference) :o
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42012
Nooo! So many larval deaths will occur from these drastic flucuations. :'(
On a flip note, fishing should be good in Panama City and Tampa right now.