The buoy shows the temp is back up to 64 does anyone have any idea what the temp is at the pier?
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The buoy shows the temp is back up to 64 does anyone have any idea what the temp is at the pier?
I checked the pier cam, water looks about 58 - 59 to me.
On average the water temp at the pier probably varies just a few degrees from the buoy readings.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jbearden
Maybe a little higher (at the pier) during 'extended warm periods' (like we are currently in) and probably a little lower after it's been cold and cloudy for a few days.
The relatively shallow water around the pier is much more 'weather sensitive' than it is 12 miles offshore in 86 feet deep water.
BTW, I've recently been doing some extensive research and exhaustive statistical analysis of the historic data from that buoy (42012) and found it interesting.
The amount of water temperature variation that can be experienced during the winter & spring months is about twice the dispersion of water temps experienced in the summer and fall.
See the numbers labeled STDev (Standard Deviation).
http://www.gulfshorespierfishing.com...tid=3418&stc=1
In part that's why I try to warn folks not to get too excited when the water temp rises a few degrees in mid winter.
It's very likely going to go back down that much (or more).
There is a LOT of room (statistically) for the water temp to move up and down this time of year...
Oh yeah, this most recent February and January (2015) were 'slightly above the mean average for those months.
It sure would be great if we had reliable water temp data reported from the pier!
#'r, it's been running right around 62, but I'll have Brent check it this morning and report back to you. It's not checked every day and it's been a few days since he last checked it, so expect it may be a little warmer today with the last few days being warmer. More later....
The folks at Okaloosa pier use a daily blog to report water temp, conditions, and what has been caught. It might take 20 minutes or so to gather and type in the info. The GS pier staff seem to do this for the visitors on site already via chalkboard. But if they could see how much business could be generated by posting relevant info online so those contemplating a trip could have good intel....
http://www.gulfshorespierfishing.com...tid=3419&stc=1Fishing the pass yesterday and what I seen on the beach indicated that the water temp may be increasing. http://www.gulfshorespierfishing.com...tid=3420&stc=1
All the boat guys love to hang around the bridge pilings. The need to try that "island" of rocks entering the gulf. I've caught more, BIG sheepshead off that than anywhere else. So many you just get tired of fishing, if that's even possible.:o
Water is cold as sh!t and clean. Lots of small baits with nothing in them. Should start raining soon and muddy up for April--but what do I know! Cheers!
59° in the skinny water, 58° on the octi at 8am.
Thank you Todd!
That would seem to indicate the recent E & SE winds have brought (modified) water from Perdido Pass over to the pier...
http://www.gulfshorespierfishing.com...tid=3421&stc=1
While the upward trend is encouraging,
looking at the temperature values (on left side) of these in comparison shows we still have a way to go til spring ;-)
This fishing thing is getting way to technical. I sometimes long for the days when we just went fishing and some days were bountiful and others were famine. it was what it was. No checking charts and graphs, just some knowledge of the best fishing holes, a rod and reel, hooks line and bait and a lot of faith. Back then fishing was a fun relaxing way to spend your time. Today, in my opion, it has become a stressful competition to see who can catch the mostest and the biggest. Frankly, as hard as we try we are not going to figure out what makes the fish tic. A higher power is in charge of that. So I say just go fishing, relax and enjoy the experience, be it fruitfull or not.
Very Well Said
That is very interesting, especially the dispersion between winter spring vs. summer fall. I was thinking maybe more sunny days or day light hours, but the daylight hours should be about the same. Not sure what you guys get on sunny days. How many years did you use to get your mean temp. Also I wonder what the dispersion is on the air temperature over the same amount of years. Thanks for sharing. Also the 68-95-99.7 rule. WOW I haven't thought about that since I was in college statistics class over 4 decades ago. LOLQuote:
Originally Posted by Pier#r
I don't know about all the technical stuff but my bottom sounder said it was 67.8° in fish river today that's got to be a good sign.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandpa Kirk
—Disraeli
Yeah GK, it made my head hurt too ;-) lol
The sample size is relatively small (5 to 7 years depending on the month) in two widely separated intervals (Aug 1983 - Jan 1984 and Apr 2009 - present), but that was still a LOT of hourly readings to average out (+3600 - 5000+ per month 52,656 total).
So I feel pretty confident with the statistical inferences based on that population.
Even though my college textbook was titled "How to Lie With Statistics" ;-) lol
The plot looked pretty close to 'bell-shaped' consistent with our humid sub-tropical climate graphs.
http://www.gulfshorespierfishing.com...tid=3426&stc=1
...the most obvious peculiarity being the temperature range 'squeeze' as the water gets warmer into the summer and early autumn.
I suspect the wider range of temperatures is due to the cumulative effect of prolonged 'cold spells' and 'warm spells' that are so typical for us on the coast (except in summer - early fall).
Somewhere in that book Darrell Huff wrote "There is terror in numbers,"
I hope most of us don't feel that way.
Really, numbers are just another way to describe our world in its intricacies.
So this is just another way I try to satisfy my insatiable desire to know and understand why things work the way they do.
For you see, the more I learn about the workings of this wonderful recreation (we call fishing) the closer it brings me to the Creator of it all!
...to know Him, and love Him, and serve Him in this life and the next!
Yes!Quote:
Originally Posted by Monk
Unfortunately the water temp didn't stay that warm...
NDBC - Station WKQA1
http://www.gulfshorespierfishing.com...tid=3428&stc=1
Cold fronts (like this) are why we can't have 'nice things' here in wintertime...
http://www.gulfshorespierfishing.com...tid=3431&stc=1
30-40 degree drop in air temp
5-12 degree drop in water temp
in a 24-hour period.
Interesting observation, the water temp at the buoy today is the warmest it's been since at least before 2010(no data before 2010) by 3degs. Hoping this is a good sign of things to come, early.
Thanks for posting this stuff. I have also read "How to Lie with Statistics," pretty enjoyable.
Managed to link warm water temps in Feb/March with the strong king years? I have suspected that warm temps bring us a good spring run and a consistent summer afterward, but I haven't gone data digging to see if there is any truth to it.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
—Disraeli
Love that quote from pier#r. Had to google Disraeli to see who that very intelligent and perceptive man was.
65.8 at 12 mile buoy right now
Yeah, the water temp @ 42012 peaked at 68 yesterday (the 1st time in a couple of months).
So we are getting 'closer'.
But the coastal water temps are still lagging behind 2-3 degrees cooler (Perdido Pass was 65-66).
So far this coastal fog has been too thick to allow the beach water temps to warm more than the off shore waters.
Maybe next week????
Well than Mr. #R, according to your chart, we should see the first wave of Spanish any day now! Did we take bets on first Spanish???
http://www.gulfshorespierfishing.com...r-pier-r-9236/
'Ole tymers' at the Panhandle piers used to say the spanish show up after the third foggy day (episode).
This is the 2nd...
It would seem the sheepshead will 'turn on' first?
Agreed, the sheepies should have already turned on. I remember catching the heck out of them on Presidents Day around Perdido Pass years ago.
Of course, given that there is about a foot of rain in the forecast, who knows what will happen.
It seems fishing has gotten worse the past three years
Not sure I agree with you Kingkiller. Caught limits on the newly imposed sheepshead limit last year and everyone had limits on Spanish and we're giving them away regularly. Lou got tired of cleaning his catch and never put a rod in the water. Didn't have trouble with Hooking up kings either. Even caught one on a got-cha lure. The problem was getting them in past all the Sharks.
I think sometimes we forget after a long fishless winter! I would agree it's a late start this year.
Summer 2013, when we got to fish the pier a lot, me & the boy put the smack-down on Spanish every time we came down during June & July, had 3 trips in a row where we came home with our limits. Tons of big spadefish on 2 trips too. And I caught a couple of kings, a couple of bull reds and jacks too. 2013 was a great summer.
Last summer, I just didn't have time to make it down. So I cant comment
Hope to make it down this year!
I know I had a heck of a lot fewer king hookups last year than in previous years, and not for lack of trying. Hogman fished for a solid week to catch one in early Oct. (I think). John G quit making his morning trips to the pier it was so slow. I hope more of them make it past the net boats in Florida this year.
There WERE lots of baby kings last year.
I didn't venture out on the octi and chase kings until my late May trip in 2012 and was pretty clueless the first couple of days. That week a novice(me) could hook a king with a double hook piano wire size leader. I thought that 50-60 kings a day and a limit of Spanish was the norm.
Hey Jbeardon, we still goin down for spring break??
Not surprisingly, last week (March 18-25) was the warmest since 2011 with the warmest average water temp on record for that week at the Buoy 42012! (69.9 degrees)
http://www.gulfshorespierfishing.com...tid=3538&stc=1
It was warm enough last week to push the inshore water temperature (from the pier to Perdido Pass) several degrees above that of the buoy 12 miles out.
And several degrees warmer than along the FL Panhandle...
http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/regio...9.2217.n18.jpg
Unfortunately, since then the water has cooled significantly about 4 degrees (F) :-(
http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/regio...7.1108.n18.jpg
But that just shows ya the dynamic nature of it!
The water temp dropped like stairs with last week's chill but is right back up there in the 'comfort zone' now...
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.ph...time_label=CDT
What is with this?
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.ph...time_label=CDT
A 5.5 degree drop in the past week during the hottest week of the year!
Modest upwelling?
When did they move 42012?
It's in the same location (12 miles south of Orange Beach).
The description is now referenced to Mobile is all.Quote:
30.065 N 87.555 W (30°3'55" N 87°33'19" W)
Quote:
Station 42012 - ORANGE BEACH - 44 NM SE of Mobile, AL
I don't subscribe to Ripcharts, so I can't see the latest data, but looking at the altimetry change from the 11th to 17th it appears that there was a significant low there that was starting to dissipate by the 17th. That would imply some inflow of more water if the low continued to dissipate and there was a large high (upwelling) to the south.
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