It's my first storm here too, been through quite a few living in La but no storms to talk about here the past few years. I was curious too, how far N should people board up/shutter? Were on Fish River, about .5-1 mile from the mouth of the bay.
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It's my first storm here too, been through quite a few living in La but no storms to talk about here the past few years. I was curious too, how far N should people board up/shutter? Were on Fish River, about .5-1 mile from the mouth of the bay.
Fishindave---You'll be fine in Foley so far as flooding danger goes, unless you live in a low lying area. Check with City Hall about flooding danger. Wind damage would depend on the category of the storm.
PNG---Quick, go check on your flood danger area, you will be in danger from the back side of a storm when the wind switches out of the west and blows Mobile Bay back up the river. I'd put up window protection if it's supposed to come within fifty miles---that's cheap insurance against the water/wind damage that could be done if a tree limb busts out a window. These storms are not things where you want to see how little preparation you can get away with. A category one shouldn't be much of a problem unless it floods you, but other than that, get real nervous.
How far north? I evacuate from Orange Beach to Grove Hill, 85 miles north of Mobile and I put up storm shutters on the south and east facing windows there---I don't want debris busting through a window. I want to be around to watch Bama beat LSU out of another championship.
When Fredrick came through in '79, I rode it out on a 40' boat anchored up in Water Hole Branch, not far from where you are. The eye passed close by and the whole experience scared the everloving aspirations out of me. Neither I nor the boat suffered any damage, but there were plenty of possibilities that night---I shined the spotlight out and watched big pine tops go blowing by horizontally while the wind screamed and roared at the same time. I was thinking about a line from a Jimmy Buffet song, "I wish I were somewhere other than here." At nightfall, the hills on both sides of the branch were heavily forested, and the next morning there wasn't a tree left standing. Yeah, I rode out a hurricane, and I'll never do it again if I have the chance to get away.
Haywire, at what point would they begin evac is it cat 2 and above, we are leaving in the morning headed that way and I am dead set on not cancelling our vacation if I have to evac I will , we are staying at the admirals quarters do you think that area will flood any.Thanks for your advice
Hawgfan---Once again, nobody knows where it's going to go. If it comes close here, especially to the west, it could well affect you there at A.Q. The authorities probably won't issue a mandatory evacuation order before Monday, and I hate it for you that the timing is so bad. Just keep an eye on the weather channels, but they won't know anything about pinpointing landfall until probably Monday evening. Right now the computer models are split three and three between the storm going well to the east of us and coming right into our backyard.
Well they are boarding up houses already in my neighborhood, we got the geni ready but if its a direct we're going to have to go. Just too far out from help if its needed. It would be easier to make it back to land by boat than car once the tree's start coming down. We're in a raised beach house about 4 blocks from the beach. We got storm shutters so should be ok there but its a little sobering to think about being stranded here.
Hmmm... what ya'll think? Should I stay or should I go?
Take the boat out. Just ride within the eye and you should be ok. Lol
Tofer, if they say go, do it. Think about it this way---Consider all the things that can go wrong in a storm---If they can go wrong, they will, and when they go wrong they will do so at the worst possible time and in a manner calculated to do the maximum possible damage. Get outta there!
how quick can you get back in with a sticker?
They usually don't let us back on until the roads are more or less cleared and emergency personnel have checked things out. It can be a day or two depending on the extent of damage. I doubt if they'll let you back in your condo until the power and sewer are back on---hard time getting to your room without elevators.
Hey Fin, this is the time when we love to be in Michigan, good luck to all of you.
[quote author=dahern49201 link=topic=1906.msg17980#msg17980 date=1345947015]
Hey Fin, this is the time when we love to be in Michigan, good luck to all of you.
[/quote]
[size=12pt]Got a spare room?[/size]
Yep we do, you're welcome here :), I will disagree with Buba with the storm moving west, if you look at the other storms moving down , that track will push against that system and push your storm easterly, like the track. But what side of this storm is worse? for your area?
[size=12pt][font=comic sans ms]If it comes ashore to our east we will be on the best side of the storm if there is a good side.
I will begin the shutter process tomorrow as I have two neighbors out of town and will have my house and their houses to prep for the storm; all for nothing I hope!
Thanks for the offer David, but we have a place north of here to go hide if we need to.
Just checked the latest projected path and I think it's time to go on a little vacation.
[quote author=FinChaser link=topic=1906.msg17981#msg17981 date=1345947804]
[quote author=dahern49201 link=topic=1906.msg17980#msg17980 date=1345947015]
Hey Fin, this is the time when we love to be in Michigan, good luck to all of you.
[/quote]
[size=12pt]Got a spare room?[/size]
[/quote]
I do to...more then welcome at the cabin(most of the comforts of home)....the house is kinda full with 1 daughter and 3 grand kids
[img width=720 height=576]http://i1102.photobucket.com/albums/g446/finchaser1/Forum%20Only/8AMSunday.png[/img]
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...large#contents
[img width=438 height=369]http://i1102.photobucket.com/albums/g446/finchaser1/Silly%20Stuff/EVAC.png[/img]
Still moving Westward, putting squarely on the east side, i.e. bad side of the Hurricane.
[img width=720 height=576]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0912W5_NL+gif/152348W5_NL_sm.gif[/img]
I'll be juvenile... It looks like dick, and we're about to get bent over.
[img width=500 height=400]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0912_PROB34_F120_sm2+gif/152348.gif[/img]
What did the Hurricane say to the Coconut tree?
"Hold onto your nuts, this ain't gonna be an ordinary Blow Job!"
[img width=480 height=361]http://i235.photobucket.com/albums/ee256/salt_water_guy/todolist.jpg[/img]
found this on another forum :poke: [img width=50 height=50]http://i45.tinypic.com/fyzc5x.jpg[/img]
you guys stay safe down there..... PLEASE.... :headbang:
.
[img width=720 height=531]http://i49.tinypic.com/11c4ebq.jpg[/img]
Those two NOAA maps posted above ( not the jumbled mess) show a big difference in just a few hours.... Just like Bubba has been saying.... the 8AM of today has it ay the mouth of Mobile Bay, and the 2pm map has it in the center of the MS coastline ....
A famous News Report out of Port Charlotte, FL back in 04, had this girl in front of a 7-11, and she said they had sold out of beer and condoms.
So, make sure you have beer and condoms.
Sounds like Jimmy Buffet's Hurricane Party, lets get drunk and screw.
[size=12pt][font=comic sans ms]Well, got the neighbors’ and my shutters in place! Not sure what’s worse; waiting until the last minute and puttin’ ‘em up in the rain and wind or puttin’ them up in the heat with love-bugs crawling all over me.
[img width=720 height=540]http://i1102.photobucket.com/albums/g446/finchaser1/Forum%20Only/8-26-2012011.jpg[/img]
[img width=720 height=540]http://i1102.photobucket.com/albums/g446/finchaser1/Forum%20Only/8-26-2012010.jpg[/img]
[img width=720 height=540]http://i1102.photobucket.com/albums/g446/finchaser1/Forum%20Only/8-26-2012009.jpg[/img]
[img width=720 height=540]http://i1102.photobucket.com/albums/g446/finchaser1/Forum%20Only/8-26-2012008.jpg[/img]
Now I’m goin’ fishing!
[img width=720 height=576]http://i1102.photobucket.com/albums/g446/finchaser1/Forum%20Only/2PMSunday.png[/img]
:-\
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/262102.shtml
Quote:
ISAAC HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS PROJECTIONS AND
CENTER FIXES YIELD A 6- TO 12-HOUR AVERAGED MOTION OF 295/15. THE
TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CHALLENGING. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
SHOW THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT
AND HEADING FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS AS TO
WHERE ISAAC MIGHT CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE U.K. MET.
OFFICE AND ECMWF MODELS ARE ABOUT 300 N MI TO THE EAST OF THE GFS
AT LANDFALL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE GFS ENSMEBLE
MEMBERS ARE EAST OF THE GFS CONTROL TRACK. BECAUSE OF THE WIDE
MODEL SPREAD...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GREATER THAN USUAL TRACK
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES AND THE FACT THAT
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE
OF A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME.
Saw on twitter that Baldwin county will issue a voluntary evac at 8am mon, thank goodness it's voluntary
I SAW MANDITORY!!!! So of 98 @ 8AM MIKE
It keeps moving West, so unless it makes a sharp right turn to the East... We're just going to see strong Tropical Storm force wind/rain.
So we aren't evacuating .
[img width=720 height=576]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0912W5_NL+gif/092844W5_NL_sm.gif[/img]
[img width=500 height=400]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0912_PROB34_F120_sm2+gif/092844.gif[/img]
They don't actually force you too leave do they, it's pretty obvious this morning where it's headed
lots of dry air to the norht south and now even the east of the eye....keep praying that dry air finds a way into the center of the storm...i think it is going to struggle to get much past hurricane strength before tomorrow.....only bad part is it is slowing down..
Tuesday Aug 28
A good look at the wave runup at the Gulf Shores Public Beach from the WKRG Gulf Shores cam @
http://www2.wkrg.com/live-cams/gulf-.../?page=Refresh
The time of astronomical high tide is still a couple of hours away.
[img width=720 height=500]http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v335/pierpounder/Misc/weather/120828-0630-GSpublicBch.jpg[/img]
I hope the water and waves don't get much higher!
I rode over to the beach and the water is only two feet above at the Cotton Bayou launch.At the beach the Gulf is kind of pissed off but not too bad,maybe 12ft.
If you go to the orange beach association's website there is a live feed from Perdido pass. Looks like some pretty good wave action to me.
A lady just walked past our condo, walking her dogs on the beach
This is the sunniest tropical storm I've ever seen..LOL
[quote author=saltfisher1 link=topic=1906.msg18107#msg18107 date=1346165139]
This is the sunniest tropical storm I've ever seen..LOL
[/quote]
Give it time.
[img width=597 height=406]http://i1199.photobucket.com/albums/aa466/filtersnow/01.jpg[/img]
[quote author=Bubba link=topic=1906.msg18119#msg18119 date=1346167498]
[img width=597 height=406]http://i1199.photobucket.com/albums/aa466/filtersnow/01.jpg[/img]
[/quote]
Says the man who wanted to paddle out in it.
^^^ With a floating kayak and pfd.
[quote author=Bubba link=topic=1906.msg18122#msg18122 date=1346170737]
^^^ With a floating kayak and pfd.
[/quote]
[size=12pt]We are waiting for the documentary![/size]
http://www.crownweather.com/?p=7097
Quote:
I am writing this short update to give you all a heads-up about potential development in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico as early as Thursday or Friday.
The remnants of Isaac are drifting to the south over southern parts of Alabama this evening and is expected to push back out into the northern Gulf of Mexico during the day Wednesday and has the potential to redevelop into a tropical storm over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday into Friday and then potentially be pulled east-northeastward across northern Florida this weekend and into the open Atlantic next week thanks to the pattern setup by Hurricane Leslie.
This idea of redevelopment into a tropical storm has the support of the European, GFS, NAM and Canadian model guidance to one extent or another. So, it is of my opinion this evening that we may have a developing tropical storm in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico just south of Mobile probably by Thursday evening or Friday morning and has the potential to bring squally weather to southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, southern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle and northern Florida from Thursday night to about Saturday before this system is pulled out east-northeastward into the open Atlantic.
[size=12pt]Get the kayak ready Bubba, second chance is coming.
If Crown said it, it's got to be true![/size]