Printable View
Dorian has taken a jog to the right, sparing Puerto Rico the worst of it and hitting the British Virgin Isles (Charlotte Amalie) with the NE quadrant, but the models (UKMET, HWRF and Ensemble) are moving towards it crossing Florida and coming into the Gulf. Base GFS still has it staying northwesterly after landfall and not getting to the Gulf.
I can do without this one.
a LOT of folkses in south Florida might be taking a 'trip' over the Labor Day weekend.
"Dorian" is now predicted to become a major hurricane prior to landfaling there...
I don't think we can quit watching this one yet. It could still shake the coconuts out of our tree.
Now projected a 3 on the channel I watch
The GFS Ensemble has been painting a bullseye on us for a few days now. I'm starting to feel a bit uneasy.
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2019/hurricane-dorian?map=ensemble
Apparently my hope for not much of tempest was in vain.
The models still have a LOT of divergence after 3 days ahead.Quote:
Originally Posted by frednic
But the 'latest' consensus seems to indicate an abrupt turn the north/northeast ("recurve") at some point over Florida/NE GoM before it reaches us... https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/2019...2019082900.gif
Yeah, some of the latest models show an initial turn into S. FL and then an abrupt turn NORTH along the coast toward GA and SC/NC. If those models hold, then the latest prediction would mirror something close to what Hurricane Matthew did in 2016.
Here's the track for Hurricane Matthew in 2016:
https://boygeniusreport.files.wordpr...l_sm.gif?w=782