Watching the tropics 2017

Next week is going to get 'interesting'.
Stay tuned to Tropical Weather
for the latest details...


Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017

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A broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers andthunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is expected whileit moves slowly northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula on Sundayand over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico early next week,where a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form.Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected over portions ofCentral America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands,and western Cuba during the next several days. An Air Force ReserveHurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system onSunday, if necessary.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

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The coastal marine forecast is problematic:
National Weather Service

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Tuesday

East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 13 to 18 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night

East winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday

East winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 6 to 7 feet. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night

Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 6 to 7 feet. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday

South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 6 to 7 feet. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday Night

South winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 6 to 7 feet. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

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Sounds like you'll need to use heavier sinkers

Yes, MUCH heavier sinkers! ;-)

Monday am from NWS MOB fb page (the REAL THREATS):
https://scontent-ort2-1.xx.fbcdn.net...ef&oe=59E34906


With gusty SE winds approaching gale force over the NW Caribbean Sea and SE GoM today, there is already a rather large long period swell setting up that will likely approach our part of the gulf coast Tuesday morning.

Look for rapidly increasing winds and seas tonite and tomorrow with wave heights and coastal wave runup peaking around the time of high tide in the mid morning hours and moderate to strong rip currents developing in the afternoon as the tide recedes some ...
http://marine.weather.gov/MapClick.p...0#.WUfWKmgrLcv

Here is the current radar view. for 1.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_2d0.png

I luv this...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DCsLr9JUwAA3yJq.jpg

Here's what folks should be paying attention to...
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1497887636

... and this!

NWPS - Nearshore Wave Prediction System
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/nwps/imag...ight_hr042.png

Where the swell is coming from...

http://www.gulfshorespierfishing.com...tid=6287&stc=1

Latest from buoy in NW Caribbean Sea...
NDBC - Station 42056 Recent Data

Looks like we are centered on this storm. Am I right and I am suppose to have concrete to poured for Garage Thursday or Friday.

I'm coming down this Saturday staying for a week . Sounds like I will need a lot of RAIN-X too get their and my 100mph bass pro rain gear to stay !!!

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Originally Posted by Randyparker

I'm coming down this Saturday staying for a week .
Sounds like I will need a lot of RAIN-X too get their and my 100mph bass pro rain gear to stay !!!

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Naw, it should be calming down quite a LOT by the weekend.
Check the Coastal Marine Forecast @...
National Weather Service

Good deal thanks for the information, because you're the reel boots on the pier! :-[

We now have TS Cindy.

Lots of heavy surf and a ton of rain, and we don't need either.

---And muddy water. Had enough of that, too.

I hope you guys and girls get out of it with no flooding issues and minimal wind. I'm coming down early next week and hoping the rain effects inland doesn't create any lower salinity issues from river runoff.

TS 'Cindy' surges...
https://www.tidesandcurrents.noaa.go...Cindy_2017.png

Something we may relate better to a little closer to 'home',
the water levels from Perdido Pass as the storm formed and dissipated...

http://www.gulfshorespierfishing.com...tid=6310&stc=1

Looks like we can expect a 'small' groundswell (may reach 4 feet) from the transit of TS "Franklin" beginning in about 24 hours, peaking Wednesday near noon (high tide) and lasting into Thursday afternoon/evening...

NWPS - Nearshore Wave Prediction System

That is a dandy tool for planning purposes, Pier#r. Thank you for posting the link.

looks like Franklin going ashore today on Yucatan peninsula. Expected to drop to tropical storm then restrengthen over water and reach near hurricane status and go back ashore south of Tampico Mexico..

'Harvey'
indirectly sent a short-lived 2'-3' groundswell into our area this am.
Indications are it will likely regenerate in the SW GoM and move NW to the Texas coast.
The winds and seas could increase here later in the week (along with more rain)...
https://scontent-atl3-1.xx.fbcdn.net...9a&oe=5A1FCA33

Well, that was quick!

Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion

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Harvey has intensified quickly this morning, and is now forecast
to be a major hurricane at landfall, bringing life-threatening stormsurge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions of the Texas coast.Preparations to protect life and property should be completed bytonight, as tropical-storm-force winds will first arrive in the hurricane and storm surge warning areas on Friday.

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The effect on our area (winds and seas) will be for the most part, problematic based on the intensity of the storm/hurricane...

National Weather Service

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Rest Of Today

Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast 3 to 8 knots. Seas around 2 feet then 1 foot or less. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Tonight

Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming northeast 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday

Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast 3 to 8 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Friday Night

Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming east 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday

Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming east. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday Night

Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday

East winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday Night

Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Monday

East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Monday Night

East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

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Very cool image from NASA's (non-operational) Goes 16 satellite of a strengthening TS Harvey...
https://scontent-atl3-1.xx.fbcdn.net...60&oe=5A20D5B2

and anticipated rainfall totals expected from the system...
https://scontent-atl3-1.xx.fbcdn.net...59&oe=5A21E6AC

It's going to bring some really powerful storms with lots of rain. 4+ inches of rain (S. Alabama) is significant, but 15 inches (may be near 2 feet in some places) or more (TX/LA) is way-dangerous! A protracted rain-event is going to have rivers overflowing their banks and it's going to compromise infrastructure (bridges/roadways) and inundate homes. I hope FEMA and other relief/emergency agencies are ready to move on this!

Here's another recent shot of the storm:

http://www.gulfshorespierfishing.com...tid=6534&stc=1

Here's that funky move that I was talking about (in general discussion) Notice the time line. The storm takes a WESTERN turn, then stalls and heads DUE EAST before it finally turns north. All that time it's dumping rain for days!

http://www.gulfshorespierfishing.com...tid=6535&stc=1

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/qu...ml?name=HARVEY


This is a better view.

Its supposed to be a CAT 3 by land fall in Texas and max storm surge at 6-12 feet.

I feel for Texas but glad to see that your area is going to be spared the brunt of Harvey.

The latest warning from the National Weather Service:
National Weather Service Text Product Display

Yikes, for TX/LA!

Take a look a this monster as viewed from the Int'l Space Station!

What Hurricane Harvey looks like from space - CNN Video

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Originally Posted by eym_sirius

The latest warning from the National Weather Service:
National Weather Service Text Product Display

Yikes, for TX/LA!

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That's scary. There it is in black and white, just how bad it can/will be.

Report from Bob Hall Pier near Corpus Christi, TX
NDBC - Station MQTT2 Recent Data

Air temp: 76 degrees Water temp: 84 degrees
Barometer: 29.30" and falling
Winds: NW @ 45 knots with gusts to 58 knots

:eek:

From Marine Weather Forecast: Corpus Christi, TX.
Let's keep them in our prayers.

Tonight
hurricane conditions. East wind 75 to 95 knots with gusts to around 125 knots becoming south 70 to 90 knots with gusts to around 115 knots after midnight. Seas 24 to 25 feet with occasional seas up to 32 feet. Showers and thunderstorms.

Well, if you're gonna have a major hurricane impact the coast of Texas, this is as good as spot as one could hope for...
https://www.google.com/maps/@28.0415.../data=!3m1!1e3

Halfway between Corpus Christi and Port O'Connor there isn't even a house on San Jose or Matagorda Islands!
Not that the flooding and stormsurge in neighboring areas won't be bad enough, just saying it could be even worse if this had 'bullseyed' a populated part of the coast!

This Atl Invest 90L shows up as a potential "Ida" type October storm...
Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d1.png

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broadarea of low pressure has formed over the southwestern CaribbeanSea. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive fordevelopment, and this system could become a tropical depressionwithin the next few days while it drifts northwestward to northwardacross the northwestern Caribbean and adjacent land areas and intothe Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Regardless of development, thissystem will likely produce heavy rains over portions of CentralAmerica during the next few days.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

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Yep!
Looks like it will get 'interesting' again early next week...
National Weather Service
http://www.gulfshorespierfishing.com...tid=6678&stc=1

Since I'm coming down next week I reject your grim reality and substitute my own that has light breezes, mild days, cool nights, clear water, an epic mackerel bite, no sharks, blackened shrimp, cheese grits, and sweet tea.

Wonderful. Haven't been there in two years. Looking forward to sun and fishing..........

From NWS MOB Weather Discussion: Wed Oct. 4, 2017...

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LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...
Weather this weekend will be determined by how Invest 90L, currently in the western Caribbean, develops and tracks. The National Hurricane Center gives this Invest an 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 5 days. With strong surface high pressure over the western Atlantic and southeastern U.S., Invest 90L will need to rely on some weakness in the ridge for it to track north into the Gulf of Mexico. It is appearing more likely at this time that said weakness will come from the weak surface wave discussed in the short term above. If this wave tracks west through the short term(e.g., the GFS solution), the weakness could occur in the central Gulf and Invest 90L could track north towards the central Gulf coast. If the wave moves north over the Florida peninsula (e.g.,what the latest ECMWF is suggesting), Invest 90L could take a more northeasterly track into the eastern Gulf instead. The more westerly track would provide us with strengthening onshore flow and wet weather over the weekend, while the eastern track would provide us with more of an offshore flow and dry weather. It is still too early to mention specific trends or solutions regarding future intensity of this system. Please continue to check our website (Mobile/Pensacola) or the National Hurricane Center(National Hurricane Center) for the latest updates on Invest 90L.

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So NOTHING is definitive yet (a tropical cyclone hasn't yet formed).
The situation will evolve over the next few days and give us a clearer picture by the end of the week...